How to manage systemic risk in asset management

Systemic crises are rare but critical for long-term performance records. When the financial system fails, good trades become bad trades and many sensible investment...

Classifying market regimes

Market regimes are clusters of persistent market conditions. They affect the relevance of investment factors and the success of trading strategies. The practical challenge...

How to construct a bond volatility index and extract market information

Volatility indices, based upon the methodology of the Cboe volatility index (VIX), serve as measures of near-term market uncertainty across asset classes. They are...

Market dynamics: belief, risk, and ambiguity effects

To understand financial market dynamics, it is helpful to distinguish beliefs, attitudes towards risk, and attitudes towards ambiguity. Beliefs are subjective evaluations of future...

Building a real-time market distress index

A new Fed paper explains how to construct a real-time distress index, using the case of the corporate bond market. The index is based...

The financial stability interest rate

The financial stability interest rate is a threshold above which the real interest rate in an economy triggers financial constraints and systemic instability. It...

Contagion and self-fulfilling dynamics

Contagion and self-fulfilling feedback loops are propagation mechanisms at the heart of systemic financial crises. Contagion refers to the deterioration of fundamentals through the...

Macro uncertainty as predictor of market volatility

Market volatility measures the size of variations of asset returns. Macroeconomic uncertainty measures the size of unpredictable disturbances in economic activity. Large moves in...

Understanding international capital flows and shocks

Macro trading factors for FX must foremostly consider (gross) external investment positions. That is because modern international capital flows are mainly about financing, i.e....

Measures of market risk and uncertainty

In financial markets, risk refers to the probability distribution of future returns. Uncertainty is a broader concept that encompasses ambiguity about the parameters of...

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Identifying the drivers of the commodity market

Commodity futures returns are correlated across many different raw materials and products. Research has identified various types of factors behind this commonality: macroeconomic...

Macro factors of the risk-parity trade

Risk-parity positioning in equity and (fixed income) duration has been a popular and successful investment strategy in past decades. However, part of that success...

Identifying market regimes via asset class correlations

A recent paper suggests identifying financial market regimes through the correlations of asset class returns. The basic idea is to calculate correlation matrixes for...

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