Six ways to estimate realized volatility

Asset return volatility is typically calculated as (annualized) standard deviation of returns over a sequence of periods, usually daily from close to close. However,...

Duration volatility risk premia

Duration volatility risk premium means compensation for bearing return volatility risk of an interest rate swap (IRS) contract. It is the scaled difference between...

Inflation as equity trading signal

Academic research suggests that high and rising consumer price inflation puts upward pressure on real discount rates and is a headwind for equity market...

Economic growth and FX forward returns

Economic growth differentials are plausible predictors of foreign exchange return trends because they are related to differences in monetary policy and return on investment....

How to use FX carry in trading strategies

FX forward-implied carry is a valid basis for trading strategies because it is related to divergences in monetary and financial conditions. However, nominal carry...

Equity convexity and gamma strategies

Equity convexity means that a stock outperforms in times of large upward or downward movements of the broad market: its elasticity to the market...

Predicting volatility with neural networks

Predicting realized volatility is critical for trading signals and position calibration. Econometric models, such as GARCH and HAR, forecast future volatility based on past...

How to estimate credit spread curves

Credit spread curves are essential for analyzing lower-grade bond markets and for the construction of trading strategies that are based on carry and relative...

Statistical learning and macro trading: the basics

The rise of data science and statistical programming has made statistical learning a key force in macro trading. Beyond standard price-based trading algorithms, statistical...

How to estimate factor exposure, risk premia, and discount factors

The basic idea behind factor models is that a large range of assets’ returns can be explained by exposure to a small range of...

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Crashes in safe asset markets

A new theoretical paper illustrates the logic behind runs and crashes in modern safe asset markets. Safe assets are characterized by stable value and...

Copulas and trading strategies

Reliance on linear correlation coefficients and joint normal distribution of returns in multi-asset trading strategies can be badly misleading. Such conventions often overestimate diversification...

Trend following: combining market and macro information

Classic trend following is based on market prices or returns. Market trends are relatively cheap to produce, popular, and plausibly generate value in the...

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