A market-to-book formula for equity strategies

A new proxy formula for equity market-to-book ratios suggests that (the logarithm of) such a ratio is equal to the discounted expected value of...

Markets’ neglect of macro news

Empirical evidence suggests that investors pay less attention to macroeconomic news when market sentiment is positive. Market responses to economic data surprises have historically...

The relation between value and momentum strategies

Simple value and momentum strategies often end up with opposite market positions. One strategy succeeds when the other fails. There are two plausible reasons...

The fundamental value trap

Fundamental value seems like a straightforward investment approach. One simply looks for assets that are “cheap” or “expensive” relative to their rationally expected risk-adjusted...

Equity values and credit spreads: the inflation effect

A theoretical paper shows that a downward shift in expected inflation increases equity valuations and credit default risk at the same time. The reason...

The predictability of market-wide earnings revisions

Forward earnings yields are a key metric for the valuation of an equity market. Helpfully, I/B/E/S and DataStream publish forward earnings forecasts of analysts...

Earnings yields, equity carry and risk premia

Forward earnings yields and equity carry are plausible indicators of risk premia embedded in equity index futures prices. Data for a panel of 25...

Seasonal effects in commodity futures curves

Seasonal fluctuations are evident for many commodity prices. However, their exact size can be quite uncertain. Hence, seasons affect commodity futures curves in two...

Term premia and macro factors

The fixed income term premium is the difference between the yield of a longer-maturity bond and the average expected risk-free short-term rate for that...

The predictability of relative asset returns

Empirical research suggests that it is easier to predict relative returns within an asset class than to predict absolute returns. Also, out-of-sample value generation...

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Intervention liquidity

Unsterilized central bank interventions in foreign exchange and securities markets increase base money liquidity independently from demand. Thus, they principally affect the money price...

Trading strategies based on implicit subsidies

Detecting implicit subsidies is one of the most effective principles of building macro trading strategies. Implicit subsidies manifest as expected excess returns over and...

Inflation expectations and interest rate swap returns

Inflation expectations wield great influence over fixed income returns. They determine the nominal yield required for a given equilibrium real interest rate, they influence...

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